Monthly Report6 min read

April 2025 Activist Short Selling Report

April 2025 Activist Short Selling Performance Report Executive Summary 11 Total Reports Published +6.8% Average Target Movement 18.2% Success Rate April 2025 was a brutal month for activist short…

Activ8 Newsroom • December 15, 2025

April 2025

Activist Short Selling Performance Report

Executive Summary

Total Reports Published

+6.8%

Average Target Movement

18.2%

Success Rate

April 2025 was a brutal month for activist short sellers. With only 2 of 11 campaigns resulting in negative price movements, the month delivered an 18.2% success rate and a positive average target movement of +6.8%. The market showed little appetite for bearish theses, as even well-researched reports from established firms saw their targets rally against them. Only Kerrisdale Capital and Morpheus Research managed to land punches, while the remaining nine reports faced headwinds as targets moved higher.

Top Performers: The Few Winners

Reports with Negative Impact on TargetsQBTS
-6.4%

            Kerrisdale Capital
        
BLZE
-4.3%

            Morpheus Research
        

In a month where most shorts got run over, Kerrisdale Capital and Morpheus Research were the lone bright spots. Kerrisdale's report on D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) delivered a 6.4% decline, questioning the viability of the company's quantum annealing technology and pivot strategy. Morpheus Research's thesis on Backblaze (BLZE) produced a 4.3% drop. These two campaigns represent the entire sum of successful short activity in April, a stark reminder that market conditions can overwhelm even quality research.

Reports That Struggled

Reports Where Shorts Faced HeadwindsBTDR
+35.7%

            Callisto Research
        
QBTS
+17.5%

            Pelican Way Research
        
GRRR
+12.0%

            Culper Research
        
KULR
+6.8%

            Grizzly Research
        
VVPR
+5.7%

            Capybara Research
        

April's bottom performers tell a cautionary tale about market timing and sentiment. Callisto Research's report on Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) saw the stock rally an astonishing 35.7% against them, a reminder that crypto-adjacent names can move violently against short theses. The QBTS situation is particularly interesting: while Kerrisdale's late-April report pushed the stock down 6.4%, Pelican Way Research's earlier report from April 7 saw the stock rally 17.5% in the following weeks before Kerrisdale's thesis took hold. Culper Research's attack on Gorilla Technology (GRRR) also backfired with a 12% rally, demonstrating that even established firms can face severe headwinds.

Market Breakdown

NASDAQ

6 reports (55% of total)

Avg. Impact: +9.1%

NYSE

4 reports (36% of total)

Avg. Impact: +3.3%

AMEX

1 report (9% of total)

Avg. Impact: +6.8%

Every major exchange saw positive average movements against short theses in April. NASDAQ-listed targets were particularly resilient, with an average gain of 9.1% following short reports. NYSE targets fared slightly better for shorts with only a 3.3% average gain, but still firmly in the red for bearish campaigns. The lone AMEX target (KULR) also moved 6.8% against the short thesis. April's market conditions were simply not conducive to short selling success.

Geographic Distribution

Countries Targeted🇺🇸 United States
6 reports (55%)
🇨🇦 Canada
2 reports (18%)
🇸🇬 Singapore
1 report (9%)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
1 report (9%)
🇹🇼 Taiwan
1 report (9%)

US-based companies dominated the target list as usual, accounting for 55% of all reports. Canadian targets (D-Wave Quantum) were hit twice by different researchers with dramatically different outcomes. The international diversification shows researchers exploring opportunities across Singapore, UK, and Taiwan-based companies trading on US exchanges.

Industry Analysis

Industry	Reports	Key Targets
Software - Application	2	YOU, BTDR
Software - Infrastructure	2	BLZE, GRRR
Computer Hardware	2	QBTS (x2)
Entertainment	1	NXST
Solar	1	VVPR
Beverages	1	MNST
Hardware & Parts	1	KULR
Education	1	KLC

Technology names dominated April's targets, with Software Application, Software Infrastructure, and Computer Hardware collectively accounting for 6 of 11 reports. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) attracted attention from two separate researchers (Pelican Way and Kerrisdale), highlighting continued skepticism around quantum computing valuations. The sector diversification beyond tech included entertainment, solar, beverages, and education, showing researchers casting a wide net in search of opportunities.

Firm Rankings

Research Firm Performance
            Kerrisdale Capital
        
1 Report | -6.4% Avg
Top Performer

            Morpheus Research
        
1 Report | -4.3% Avg
Solid Execution

            The Bear Cave
        
1 Report | +0.7% Avg
Flat Result

            Spruce Point Management
        
2 Reports | +3.0% Avg
Slight Headwinds

            Grizzly Research
        
2 Reports | +4.1% Avg
Mixed Results

            Capybara Research
        
1 Report | +5.7% Avg

            Culper Research
        
1 Report | +12.0% Avg

            Pelican Way Research
        
1 Report | +17.5% Avg

            Callisto Research
        
1 Report | +35.7% Avg

Kerrisdale Capital stands alone at the top of April's rankings with their -6.4% impact on D-Wave Quantum. Their report on quantum computing limitations resonated with investors, making them the month's clear winner. Morpheus Research earned the only other negative impact with their Backblaze thesis. The Bear Cave came closest to breaking even with a minimal +0.7% move against their KinderCare report. Every other firm saw their targets move meaningfully higher, with Callisto Research taking the biggest hit as Bitdeer rallied 35.7% against their thesis.

Notable Campaigns

Campaign of the Month: QBTS

Firm: Kerrisdale Capital

Target: D-Wave Quantum Inc.

Impact: -6.4%

Thesis: Kerrisdale argued that D-Wave's quantum annealing technology is obsolete and its pivot to gate-based quantum computing is years behind competitors like IBM and Google.

The QBTS Double Feature

Firm: Pelican Way Research

Target: D-Wave Quantum Inc.

Impact: +17.5%

Thesis: Published three weeks before Kerrisdale, Pelican Way's earlier report faced significant headwinds before the stock eventually turned on Kerrisdale's follow-up.

The Crypto Rally: BTDR

Firm: Callisto Research

Target: Bitdeer Technologies

Impact: +35.7%

Thesis: Despite bearish thesis on this Singapore-based Bitcoin mining company, the stock rallied dramatically, illustrating the challenges of shorting crypto-adjacent names.

Large-Cap Resilience: MNST

Firm: Spruce Point Management

Target: Monster Beverage Corp

Market Cap: $72 billion

Impact: +4.4%

Thesis: April's largest target by market cap proved difficult to move, as the beverage giant's stock drifted higher despite the short report.

Strategic Insights

Key Takeaways from April

1. Timing is Everything

The QBTS situation illustrates the importance of timing. Pelican Way's early April report saw the stock rally 17.5%, while Kerrisdale's late April follow-up delivered -6.4%. Same target, dramatically different outcomes based on when the thesis was published.

2. Crypto Names Remain Treacherous

Callisto Research's 35.7% loss on Bitdeer reinforces the extreme difficulty of shorting crypto-adjacent stocks. Sentiment can shift rapidly, and short theses can be overwhelmed by broader market enthusiasm.

3. Large-Caps Absorb the Blow

Spruce Point's reports on Monster Beverage ($72B) and Clear Secure ($3.2B) both saw targets move higher. Larger, more liquid names continue to show resilience against short attacks.

4. Success Requires Selectivity

With only an 18.2% success rate, April underscores that market conditions matter enormously. Even quality research can struggle when broader sentiment is risk-on.

5. Technology Focus Persists

Despite poor results, researchers continue targeting technology and software names heavily. The sector's inherent complexity and valuation questions make it a perpetual hunting ground for short sellers.

Final Thoughts

Bottom Line

April 2025 was a month to forget for activist short sellers. With only two successful campaigns out of eleven and an average target movement of +6.8% against short theses, the month demonstrated that even well-researched bearish cases can struggle against favorable market sentiment.

Kerrisdale Capital earned top honors by being one of only two firms to land a punch, with their D-Wave Quantum thesis delivering meaningful downside. But the broader lesson is clear: activist short selling requires not just quality research, but also favorable market conditions and precise timing.

The QBTS story is particularly instructive. The same target, hit by two different researchers weeks apart, produced returns of +17.5% and -6.4% respectively. In short selling, timing can be the difference between victory and defeat.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Activ8 Insights does not provide recommendations to buy or sell securities.

April 2025 | Activ8 Insights