December 2025 Activist Short Selling Report
December 2025 Activist Short Selling Performance Report 14 Total Reports Published -11.4% Average Stock Impact 64.3% Success Rate December 2025 delivered an explosive finale to the year in activist…
Activ8 Newsroom • January 9, 2026
December 2025
Activist Short Selling Performance Report
Top Performers
Stock Prices that Defied the Reports
Market Breakdown
By Exchange
NASDAQ
8 reports (57.1% of total)
Avg. Impact: -13.2%
NYSE
3 reports (21.4% of total)
Avg. Impact: -6.8%
London Stock Exchange
2 reports (14.3% of total)
Avg. Impact: -23.0%
XETRA
1 report (7.1% of total)
Avg. Impact: +11.7%
Geographic Distribution
Industry Analysis
| Industry | Reports | Avg. Impact | Key Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software - Application | 4 | -11.4% | PTRN, VIA, TRST.L, AZ |
| Engineering & Construction | 2 | +12.9% | MAGH |
| Specialty Business Services | 1 | -92.6% | SMX |
| Electrical Equipment | 1 | -32.4% | CWR.L |
| Oil & Gas Energy | 1 | -17.0% | NUAI |
| Auto - Parts | 1 | -13.5% | SES |
| Medical - Diagnostics | 1 | +8.5% | RDNT |
| Medical - Instruments | 1 | +11.7% | GXI.DE |
| Biotechnology | 1 | -5.3% | ANRO |
| Industrial - Machinery | 1 | +0.3% | SERV |
Market Cap Analysis
Micro-Cap (<$100M)
2 reports
Avg. Impact: -54.8%
SMX ($21M) and NUAI ($69M) were the micro-cap targets, with SMX's collapse driving the extreme average.
Small-Cap ($100M - $1B)
9 reports
Avg. Impact: -3.7%
The sweet spot for volume, with mixed results reflecting the diversity of targets.
Mid-Cap ($1B - $10B)
3 reports
Avg. Impact: -5.9%
VIA ($2.2B), PTRN ($1.8B), and RDNT ($5.5B) represented the larger targets.
Firm Performance Rankings
Notable Campaigns
The SMX Obliteration
The month's defining moment: Fugazi Research published on SMX, an Ireland-domiciled specialty business services company trading on NASDAQ with a micro-cap valuation of just $21M. The stock collapsed from $220 to $16.35, a near-total destruction of shareholder value. This represents one of the most successful short reports in recent memory.
FRAUD ALLEGATIONS MICRO-CAP
Grizzly's UK Double
Grizzly Research executed a focused December strategy targeting UK-listed companies. Ceres Power (CWR.L) in electrical equipment fell 32.4%, while Trustpilot (TRST.L), a Denmark-headquartered software company, dropped 13.6%. The dual success on the London Stock Exchange showcases Grizzly's expanding international capabilities.
UK MARKET CONSISTENT
The MAGH Whipsaw
Two separate research firms targeted MAGH, a Singapore-based engineering and construction company, within days of each other. Instead of compounding selling pressure, the stock rallied. BMF Reports' earlier entry saw a +16.8% move against them, while Utopia Capital experienced +9.0%. A reminder that even consensus bearish views can be wrong.
CONTRARIAN WIN CONSTRUCTION
Bear Cave's Split Decision
The Bear Cave published two reports in December with dramatically different outcomes. PTRN, a $1.8B software company, fell 24.3% validating the thesis. SERV, an industrial machinery company, barely moved at +0.3%. The contrast illustrates how sector and market cap dynamics significantly influence short campaign outcomes.
MIXED RESULTS NET POSITIVE
Strategic Insights
Micro-Caps Remain Vulnerable
December's data reinforces a persistent pattern: sub-$100M market cap companies facing well-researched short theses experience dramatically higher average impacts (-54.8% this month). SMX's collapse exemplifies how limited liquidity and concentrated ownership can accelerate declines when fraud allegations emerge.
European Markets Offer Alpha
The London Stock Exchange delivered the month's best risk-adjusted returns for shorts, with Grizzly's dual UK targets averaging -23.0%. Different disclosure requirements, less analyst coverage, and varying market microstructure create opportunities that US-focused researchers may overlook.
Construction Defied the Bears
MAGH's resilience against two separate bearish reports suggests that companies with tangible assets and visible project pipelines can withstand short pressure. Engineering and construction targets may require more specific catalysts than accounting or governance concerns to move.
Healthcare Showed Immunity
Both medical device and diagnostics targets (GXI.DE and RDNT) rallied post-report, continuing a pattern of healthcare resilience we have observed throughout Q4. The sector's strong fundamentals and acquisition activity may be providing a floor for valuations regardless of short seller concerns.
Volume Leaders Face Variance
Firms publishing multiple reports experienced wider outcome dispersion. The Bear Cave's -24.3% and +0.3% spread, along with Grizzly's -32.4% and -13.6% range, suggests that increasing report volume naturally introduces variance that single-report firms avoid.
Bottom Line
December 2025 will be remembered for extremes. Fugazi Research delivered one of the most devastating short reports in recent memory, while the market firmly rejected bearish theses on several other names. The 64.3% success rate masks significant dispersion, with the gap between top and bottom performers spanning over 100 percentage points.
Key lessons from the month: fraud-focused theses on micro-caps retain explosive potential; European markets offer differentiated opportunities; and even consensus short views can fail when targeting companies with tangible business operations. As we close out the year, the data continues to emphasize that activist short selling rewards deep research and conviction while punishing surface-level analysis.
Looking ahead to 2026, watch for continued international expansion by US-based researchers and potential regulatory developments in both the US and Europe that could reshape the landscape.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Activ8Insights tracks and analyzes activist short selling activity but does not make buy or sell recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All data is sourced from public filings and market data as of December 31, 2025.
Activ8Insights | December 2025 Monthly Report
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