Monthly Report10 min read

February 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report

February 2026 saw 19 activist short selling campaigns deliver an average impact of -2.95%, with Fugazi Research claiming Short King honors after a -61.06% outcome on RIME. Read the full breakdown of firm rankings, notable campaigns, and where the research edge is pointing heading into Q1 2026.

Activ8 Newsroom • March 9, 2026

February 2026

Activist Short Selling Performance Report

Coverage Period: Feb 1 – Feb 27, 2026 19 Active Campaigns Tracked 13 Research Firms 5 Exchanges · 5 Countries

Month at a Glance

Total Reports 19 Across 13 research firms

NASDAQ: 9 NYSE: 9 ASX: 1

Average Impact −2.95% Mean stock move from report date

Down 5%+: 9 Down 10%+: 4 Down 25%+: 1

Success Rate 63.2% Reports resulting in price decline

12 of 19 campaigns delivered

Overview

The Month in Short

February 2026 was a month of extremes. Nineteen campaigns tracked across thirteen firms produced an average decline of 2.95%, a respectable aggregate that masks a more turbulent picture underneath. Fugazi Research's RIME report, which saw the consumer electronics micro-cap fall 61% following publication, single-handedly anchored the month's averages while the broader cohort delivered mixed but mostly creditable results. Strip that outlier, and the field still produced double-digit declines in three additional campaigns, underscoring that activist short selling, at its disciplined best, remains a legitimate force in price discovery.

The 63.2% success rate held above the historical threshold that separates market signal from market noise, though Spruce Point Management made a strong case for the counterargument, with two targets (NVA and SGHC) surging 23% and 20.5% respectively after reports were published. Not every thesis lands. The firms that get paid are the ones that understand the difference between finding problems and timing the market's recognition of them.

Large-caps proved the most productive area in February, averaging a -5.70% move across six campaigns. Abelian Analysis's Carvana report (-17.8%), The Captain's Log's AppLovin call (-8.1%), and Citron Research's SanDisk short (-6.7%) all demonstrated that size is no protection when the forensics are airtight. This month's reports confirm what the best practitioners have long known: the edge is in the research, not the market cap.

Performance

Top Performing Short Campaigns

Target	Research Firm	Return
RIME Consumer Electronics · NASDAQ	Fugazi Research	−61.06%
CVNA Auto Dealerships · NYSE	Abelian Analysis	−17.76%
BBAI IT Services · NYSE	Hunterbrook Media	−10.81%
OPTX Electrical Equipment · NASDAQ	Fugazi Research	−10.08%
APP Software - Application · NASDAQ	The Captain's Log	−8.11%

Misfires

Stock Prices That Defied the Reports

Target	Research Firm	Return
NVA Precious Metals · NASDAQ	Spruce Point Mgmt	+23.04%
SGHC Gambling & Casinos · NYSE	Spruce Point Mgmt	+20.50%
EOS.AX Aerospace & Defense · ASX	Grizzly Research	+18.79%
NXE Uranium · NYSE	Culper Research	+13.20%
STRL Construction & Engineering · NASDAQ	Snowcap Research	+4.29%

Market Structure

Market Breakdown

By Exchange

NASDAQ

9 reports

−8.43%

NYSE

9 reports

+0.11%

ASX

1 report

+18.79%

Analyst Note

NASDAQ-listed targets delivered dramatically better short results this month, averaging −8.43% versus NYSE's near-flat outcome. The single ASX name (EOS.AX) was a meaningful miss for Grizzly Research, surging nearly 19%.

Geographic Distribution

🇺🇸

United States

🇦🇺

Australia

🇧🇷

Brazil

🇨🇦

Canada

🇬🇬

Guernsey

Sector Breakdown

Industry Analysis

RIME

Consumer Electronics

−61.06%

CVNA

Auto Dealerships

−17.76%

BBAI

IT Services

−10.81%

OPTX

Electrical Equipment

−10.08%

APP

Software Application

−8.11%

HIFS

Banks - Regional

−7.79%

HTGC

Asset Management

−6.82%

SNDK

Hardware & Equipment

−6.74%

CRWV

Software Infrastructure

−5.53%

SGML

Industrial Materials

−3.87%

GPGI

Metal Fabrication

−3.52%

IONQ

Computer Hardware

−0.34%

JOBY

Airlines & Air Services

+3.93%

YELP

Internet Content

+2.67%

STRL

Construction & Engineering

+4.29%

NXE

Uranium

+13.20%

EOS.AX

Aerospace & Defense

+18.79%

SGHC

Gambling & Casinos

+20.50%

NVA

Precious Metals

+23.04%

Size Factor

Market Cap Analysis

Nano Cap

Under $50M market cap

−61.06%

1 report · RIME

Micro Cap

$50M – $300M market cap

+6.48%

2 reports · NVA, OPTX

Small Cap

$300M – $2B market cap

−0.20%

5 reports · SGML, HIFS, YELP, BBAI, EOS.AX

Mid Cap

$2B – $10B market cap

+5.46%

5 reports · HTGC, GPGI, JOBY, SGHC, NXE

Large Cap

$10B – $200B market cap

−5.70%

6 reports · CRWV, SNDK, STRL, APP, CVNA, IONQ

Large-caps continued to be the most productive tier for short research this month, averaging -5.70% across six campaigns. JOBY and NXE sit in mid-cap at $9.5B and $8.4B respectively, both just under the $10B threshold. The nano-cap result is driven entirely by RIME, and the micro-cap average is skewed positive by NVA's +23% move against Spruce Point's thesis.

Leaderboard

Firm Performance Rankings

Rank Research Firm Reports Win Rate Avg Impact

1 Fugazi Research 2 100% −35.57%

2 Hunterbrook Media 2 100% −8.82%

3 The Captain's Log 1 100% −8.11%

4 Citron Research 1 100% −6.74%

5 Abelian Analysis 3 67% −6.46%

6 WolfPack Research 2 100% −4.06%

7 Blue Orca Capital 1 100% −3.87%

8 Jehoshaphat Research 1 100% −3.52%

9 The Bear Cave 1 0% +2.67%

10 Snowcap Research 1 0% +4.29%

11 Culper Research 1 0% +13.20%

12 Grizzly Research 1 0% +18.79%

13 Spruce Point Management 2 0% +21.77%

Spotlight

Notable Campaigns

RIME

Fugazi Research

−61.06%

The Micro-Cap Call

Fugazi Research's report on consumer electronics micro-cap RIME saw the stock lose nearly two-thirds of its value, with the share price falling from a base market cap of just $5.1M. With RIME operating in a commoditized hardware category against better-capitalized competitors, Fugazi's research exposed a company with almost no margin for error. The move from $4.52 to $1.76 made this February's standout campaign by a wide margin.

Successful Down 25%+ Micro-Cap Consumer Electronics

CVNA

Abelian Analysis

−17.76%

Subprime Auto in Prime Clothing

Abelian Analysis's Carvana short, titled "Subprime Auto in Prime Clothing," argued that the used-vehicle platform's recovery narrative obscured a structurally fragile credit book. Published February 4th, the thesis gained conviction as Carvana fell from $406 to $334 over the following three weeks. At a $68.5B market cap, this represented the month's largest market cap shift tied to a short report, with shares falling roughly $14.6B in aggregate value.

Successful Down 10%+ Large-Cap Auto Sector

SGHC

Spruce Point Management

+20.50%

The Guernsey Gamble Goes Wrong

Super Group (SGHC), a Guernsey-based online gambling operator, shrugged off Spruce Point Management's bearish thesis and climbed 20.5% from $8.88 to $10.70 over the two-week measurement window. The move reflects the difficulty of timing negative catalysts in gaming stocks during periods of sector momentum. Spruce Point simultaneously published against NVA, which also surged, making February a month to forget for the firm.

Failed Mid-Cap International Gaming

APP

The Captain's Log

−8.11%

The AppLovin Rerating Begins

The Captain's Log targeted AppLovin (APP), one of the market's most-loved ad-tech names, publishing a short thesis on February 10th when the stock traded above $473. By month-end, shares had retreated to $434, a move that represented roughly $13B in aggregate value and validated a thesis most bulls had dismissed. For a firm with a single active campaign, landing a -8.1% hit against a $163B mega-cap is a meaningful proof of concept.

Successful Down 5%+ Large-Cap Ad-Tech

Analysis

Strategic Insights

NASDAQ Outperformance Signals a Structural Edge

NASDAQ-listed targets returned an average of -8.43% compared to NYSE's near-breakeven +0.11%. This spread of nearly 850 basis points likely reflects a higher concentration of narrative-driven, momentum-inflated names on NASDAQ where short pressure is more effective at collapsing sentiment-led premiums. Researchers focusing on tech and growth-oriented sectors should find fertile ground continuing into Q1 2026.

Large-Caps Are No Longer a Safe Haven from Short Activism

Six campaigns against companies valued above $10 billion produced an average decline of 5.70%. The combined market impact, led by Carvana ($14.6B), AppLovin ($13B), and SanDisk, demonstrates that deep-pocketed targets are no longer immune. As short reports have become more forensically sophisticated, the market's reaction function appears increasingly size-agnostic.

Spruce Point's Double-Miss Is a Sector Timing Problem, Not a Research Problem

Spruce Point Management's 0% success rate this month, with both NVA (+23%) and SGHC (+20.5%) moving sharply against them, appears rooted in timing rather than flawed analysis. Both targets operate in areas subject to macro tailwinds: precious metals benefited from commodity momentum, gaming stocks rode sector sentiment. A thesis can be directionally correct and still cost you dearly if the catalyst timeline slips.

Fugazi Research's Micro-Cap Focus Delivers Asymmetric Returns

Fugazi's two-campaign month produced the best average impact in the field at -35.57%, driven overwhelmingly by the RIME trade (-61.06%). The micro-cap short strategy carries extreme concentration risk but, when executed with conviction on the right target, generates outcomes no large-cap short can match in percentage terms. Fugazi's 100% success rate across both February campaigns underscores consistent execution rather than lucky outlier selection.

AI-Adjacent Names Remain a Crowded but Productive Target Pool

Three of the month's most impactful shorts (BBAI -10.8%, APP -8.1%, and CRWV -5.5%) operate in or adjacent to artificial intelligence verticals. All three declined meaningfully following reports. The pattern reflects elevated valuations in AI-adjacent companies creating fragile technical setups where fundamental critiques receive outsized market reactions. Expect continued short attention in this thematic cluster through 2026.

Monthly Award

Short King of the Month

Short King of the Month: February 2026

Fugazi Research

Fugazi Research claimed February's crown with a two-campaign sweep that averaged -35.57% impact and a 100% success rate. The RIME call, which produced a -61% outcome on a micro-cap consumer electronics company, stands as the month's most decisive single-target outcome. Combined with the OPTX short (-10.1%), Fugazi demonstrated the focused, high-conviction approach that separates genuine short research from noise. Two campaigns, two wins, no second place.

Best Stock Impact −61.06%

Target Ticker RIME

Monthly Win Rate 100%

Bottom Line

Final Thoughts

February 2026 delivered a nuanced verdict on activist short selling. The headline 63.2% success rate is respectable, and the -2.95% average impact holds up as evidence that well-researched short campaigns move markets. But the distribution is what matters: eight firms achieved positive returns for their theses, five produced negative results. The gap between the top and bottom quartile was enormous, from Fugazi at -35.57% to Spruce Point at +21.77%, a spread of nearly 57 percentage points separating the month's best and worst performers.

The large-cap and AI-adjacent themes remain the most productive arenas for short activism in the current environment. Carvana's decline reinforced that complex credit structures, however obscured by revenue growth, will eventually surface in stock prices. AppLovin's pullback after The Captain's Log's report suggests the ad-tech premium still has room to compress. CoreWeave's -5.5% move following Abelian Analysis's conversion-gap thesis offers an early read on a trade that the firm expects to play out over the next two earnings cycles.

Looking ahead into March, the pipeline of AI infrastructure names trading at elevated multiples continues to offer targets for disciplined fundamental researchers. The firms that will outperform are the ones doing the hard work: building financial models from primary sources, testing assumptions against operational data, and sizing positions with the conviction that comes from having done the work others won't. February's data confirms, once more, that the market rewards that discipline.

Disclaimer

This report is produced by Activ8 Insights for informational and research purposes only. All performance data is calculated based on stock price movements from the date of report publication through February 27, 2026. Past performance of activist short selling campaigns is not indicative of future results. This report does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Activ8 Insights does not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in this report. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Research firm names, campaign data, and performance metrics are sourced from publicly available information and are believed to be accurate but are not independently verified. All rights reserved © 2026 Activ8 Insights.

February 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report

February 2026

Fugazi Research

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