Monthly Report12 min read

March 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report

Activist short sellers posted a 71.4% success rate across 14 March campaigns, with biotech and asset management taking the hardest hits. Fugazi Research claims Short King with two clean, fully shortable wins averaging -36.1%.

Activ8 Newsroom • April 7, 2026

Activ8 Insights

March 2026

Activist Short Selling Performance Report

As of March 31, 2026

Campaigns Tracked 14

Research Firms 12

Countries 6

Executive Summary

Total Reports

Across 12 research firms

Exchanges covered 6

Countries targeted 6

Sectors covered 10

Average Impact

-14.6%

Avg. return across all 14 campaigns

Down 5% or more 6 / 14 (42.9%)

Down 10% or more 4 / 14 (28.6%)

Down 25% or more 3 / 14 (21.4%)

Success Rate

71.4%

Campaigns with negative return

Successful campaigns 10 of 14

Failed campaigns 4 of 14

Best single return -70.6% (VCX)

The Month in Short

01
Asset management was the sector story. Four independent campaigns targeted firms in the space across three continents, averaging a -24.7% return. Citron Research's VCX campaign (-70.6% in five days) and Abelian Analysis's OWL thesis arrived from different angles but reflected the same underlying concern: what happens to asset managers when capital stops staying put.
02
Biotech nano-caps delivered disproportionate returns. Fugazi Research's CDIO campaign (-55.7%) and Culper Research's ADMA campaign (-32.6%) together averaged -44.2%. Thinly traded biotechs below $50M in market cap continued to show extreme sensitivity to credible short research.
03
Multi-campaign firms ran clean sheets. Both Fugazi Research (2 campaigns) and Culper Research (2 campaigns) finished March at 100% success rates. Firms running multiple reports in a single month increasingly signal institutional research depth rather than opportunism.
04
International campaigns accounted for five of 14 reports. Targets spanned France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and India. Ningi Research's KINV-B.ST campaign in Sweden (-17.2%) was the strongest international result. GlassHouse Research's EIF.TO in Canada (+5.8%) was the month's weakest outcome overall.
05
Activ8 Insights published its Short Seller's Guide to the AI Bubble. No March campaigns directly targeted AI infrastructure names, but the macro environment described in Abelian's OWL report (oil +27%, core PCE at 3.2%, a frozen Fed) is the precise backdrop in which overvalued technology narratives have historically unwound fastest. The next major short thesis may already be forming.

Top Performing Shorts

Ticker	Research Firm	Return
VCX ⚠ Limited borrow	Citron Research	-70.6%
CDIO	Fugazi Research	-55.7%
ADMA	Culper Research	-32.6%
KINV-B.ST	Ningi Research	-17.2%
WATT	Fugazi Research	-16.6%

Stock Prices That Defied the Reports

Ticker	Research Firm	Return
EIF.TO	GlassHouse Research	+5.8%
MMYT	Morpheus Research	+4.1%
BG	Spruce Point Management	+3.6%
BW	WolfPack Research	+1.2%
ETHA	Culper Research	-1.1%

ETHA declined by a fractional 1.1% during the measurement window, effectively neutral. Included for completeness as the fifth-weakest outcome among the month's campaigns.

Market Breakdown

By Exchange

NASDAQ 6 reports -18.7% avg

NYSE 4 reports -19.0% avg

STO 1 report -17.2% avg

LSE 1 report -3.3% avg

PAR 1 report -1.4% avg

TSX 1 report +5.8% avg

Geographic Distribution

🇺🇸 United States

🇫🇷 France

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇨🇦 Canada

🇸🇪 Sweden

🇮🇳 India

Industry Analysis

Industry	Reports	Avg Return	Key Tickers
Biotechnology	2	-44.2%	ADMA, CDIO
Asset Management	4	-24.7%	VCX, KINV-B.ST, ETHA, OWL
Hardware, Equipment & Parts	1	-16.6%	WATT
Financial - Credit Services	1	-10.4%	SOFI
Financial - Capital Markets	1	-3.3%	CBG.L
Travel Lodging	1	-1.4%	AC.PA
Industrial - Machinery	1	+1.2%	BW
Agricultural Farm Products	1	+3.6%	BG
Travel Services	1	+4.1%	MMYT
Airlines, Airports & Air Services	1	+5.8%	EIF.TO

Market Cap Analysis

Nano Cap

Under $50M

-36.1%

2 reports — 100% success rate

Small Cap

$300M – $2B

-1.1%

2 reports — 50% success rate

Mid Cap

$2B – $10B

-16.0%

6 reports — 66.7% success rate

Large Cap

$10B – $200B

-8.5%

4 reports — 75% success rate

Firm Performance Rankings

#1 Citron Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-70.6%

#2 Fugazi Research

Reports 2

Success Rate 100%

-36.1%

#3 Ningi Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-17.2%

#4 Culper Research

Reports 2

Success Rate 100%

-16.8%

#5 Muddy Waters Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-10.4%

#6 Abelian Analysis

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-10.1%

#7 Viceroy Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-3.3%

#8 Grizzly Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 100%

-1.4%

#9 WolfPack Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 0%

+1.2%

#10 Spruce Point Management

Reports 1

Success Rate 0%

+3.6%

#11 Morpheus Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 0%

+4.1%

#12 GlassHouse Research

Reports 1

Success Rate 0%

+5.8%

Notable Campaigns

-70.6%

VCX

Citron Research — NYSE

Asset Manager Collapses Following Citron Report

Citron Research's campaign against VCX, a mid-cap U.S. asset manager with a $5.1B market cap at report date, produced the most dramatic single-campaign outcome of the month. The stock declined 70.6% in five trading days, erasing roughly $3.6B in market value. The speed and scale of the move reflect both the conviction behind the report and the sensitivity of asset management firms to questions about fee structures and AUM durability once confidence breaks.

⚠ Borrow Note: As of the publication of this report, VCX is not shortable for most retail investors. The fund listed on NYSE on March 19, 2026, only seven days before the Citron report, leaving virtually no shares available to borrow through standard retail brokerages. Citron's position was executable via institutional prime brokerage relationships. The 70.6% decline reflects the collapse of a speculative retail premium against NAV, not broad short selling activity.

-70.6% in 5 days Asset Management Mid Cap NYSE

-55.7%

CDIO

Fugazi Research — NASDAQ

Nano-Cap Biotech Targeted in Multi-Campaign Week

Fugazi Research's campaign against CDIO, a nano-cap biotech trading at $4.40 at report date with a market cap under $4M, delivered a 55.7% decline over 11 trading days. The outcome illustrates the particular vulnerability of thinly traded, sub-$50M biotechs to well-documented activist research: limited institutional support, narrow float, and binary pipeline risk create conditions where a credible short thesis can move a stock dramatically. Fugazi's second March campaign (WATT, -16.6%) compounded a strong month for the firm.

-55.7% in 11 days Biotechnology Nano Cap NASDAQ

-32.6%

ADMA

Culper Research — NASDAQ

Culper Doubles Down on Biotech with Paired Campaign Month

Culper Research published against ADMA Biologics, a mid-cap biotech at $2.2B market cap, which declined 32.6% over seven trading days. The firm also published on ETHA in the same month, producing a more modest -1.1% outcome. The ADMA result is consistent with Culper's track record in healthcare and biotech, where their research teams have historically identified pricing, efficacy, or regulatory vulnerabilities before the market fully prices them. A 100% success rate for the month on two different biotech profiles demonstrates range.

-32.6% in 7 days Biotechnology Mid Cap NASDAQ

-10.1%

OWL

Abelian Analysis — NYSE

Private Credit Run Thesis Targets Blue Owl

Abelian Analysis published a forensic examination of non-traded BDC redemption dynamics, arguing that a quiet, structure-driven run is underway across eight vehicles including Blue Owl's BCRED. Using SEC EDGAR SC TO-I/A filings, Abelian documented accelerating fill rates and an active redemption gate, noting that oil at +27% and core PCE at 3.2% leave the Fed unable to act as a release valve. The 10.1% decline during the measurement window likely understates the thesis, which Abelian frames as a longer-dated pair trade: short OWL, long Hamilton Lane. An unusually well-sourced and structurally original piece of activist short research.

-10.1% initial move Asset Management Large Cap Private Credit

Strategic Insights

Asset Management Is Under Coordinated Scrutiny

Four of 14 March campaigns targeted asset managers across three continents, averaging a -24.7% return. The convergence is not coincidental. Rising redemption pressure in private credit vehicles, fee compression from index competition, and macro conditions that limit the Fed's ability to backstop credit markets have all sharpened short sellers' focus on the sector. Abelian's OWL thesis and Citron's VCX campaign arrived from different angles but tell a related story: when asset managers' business models depend on capital staying put, the question of what happens when it doesn't is no longer theoretical.

Nano-Cap Biotechs Remain the Highest-Conviction Short Setups

The two nano-cap campaigns this month (WATT, CDIO) averaged a -36.1% return with a 100% success rate. Thinly traded names below $50M in market cap combine limited institutional sponsorship, binary pipeline risk, and narrow float in ways that structurally amplify the impact of credible activist research. Fugazi Research's CDIO campaign, which sent a $3.78M market cap stock down 55.7% in 11 days, is the clearest illustration. Researchers willing to do the primary work on small biotechs continue to find disproportionate payoffs.

Multi-Campaign Operators Show Consistency Advantage

Fugazi Research and Culper Research each published two campaigns in March, both finishing with 100% success rates. Fugazi averaged -36.1% across WATT and CDIO. Culper averaged -16.8% across ADMA and ETHA, though the ETHA result (-1.1%) was effectively flat. The pattern suggests that firms running multiple campaigns in a single month are drawing on established research infrastructure and sector expertise rather than opportunistic one-off reports. Cross-campaign consistency is increasingly a signal of credible fundamental work.

International Campaigns Broaden the Activist Universe

Five of 14 March campaigns targeted companies outside the United States, spanning France (AC.PA), the United Kingdom (CBG.L), Canada (EIF.TO), Sweden (KINV-B.ST), and India (MMYT). The international five averaged -2.5% collectively, with Ningi Research's KINV-B campaign (-17.2%) the clear standout. GlassHouse Research's EIF.TO campaign (+5.8%) was the month's worst international outcome. The geographic expansion of activist short research is a structural trend. As domestic targets become more competitive and more litigious, international names with looser disclosure environments and less analyst coverage represent a meaningful opportunity set.

The AI Bubble Thesis Is the Next Frontier for Activist Short Research

This month, Activ8 Insights published its Short Seller's Guide to the AI Bubble, examining the structural conditions that historically precede major short opportunities in overhyped technology cycles. The report tracks key AI infrastructure names (NVDA, ORCL, PLTR) against prior bubble precedents and identifies the data center energy constraint, revenue concentration risk, and expectations-versus-fundamentals divergence as the three most actionable short theses forming in the space. None of the March activist campaigns directly targeted AI names, but the macro environment detailed in Abelian's OWL report (oil shock, credit tightening, a frozen Fed) is precisely the kind of liquidity backdrop in which overvalued technology narratives historically unwind fastest.

Activ8 Insights Research

A Short Seller's Guide to the AI Bubble — published March 2026. The piece covers three short theses forming across NVDA, ORCL, and PLTR, with analysis of data center energy exposure, revenue concentration, and historical bubble comparisons. Available now on activ8insights.com.

Short King of the Month

Short King of the Month — March 2026

Fugazi Research

Fugazi Research earns the Short King crown for March with two campaigns, both successful, averaging -36.1%. Their CDIO campaign sent a NASDAQ-listed nano-cap biotech down 55.7% in 11 trading days, while WATT followed with a -16.6% decline. Crucially, both targets were fully shortable by retail traders, making these actionable calls rather than institutional-only plays. Two for two in a single month, across two different sectors, is the kind of consistent output that defines a firm operating at its best.

Avg. Campaign Impact

-36.1%

Campaigns (March)

2 of 2

Success Rate

100%

Honorable Mentions

Citron Research

-70.6%

The biggest single-campaign result of the month on VCX, and the thesis was unambiguously correct. VCX's 26x NAV premium was unsustainable and Citron called it with precision. The caveat for retail traders: VCX had virtually no shares available to borrow at the time of publication and remains not shortable for most retail accounts as of this report. The call was right; the trade was not accessible to most.

⚠ VCX not shortable for most retail investors

Culper Research

-16.8% avg

Two campaigns in March, both on fully shortable NASDAQ names. ADMA declined 32.6% over seven days, a clean biotech result driven by fundamental research. ETHA was effectively flat at -1.1%, but a 100% success rate across two different asset profiles in one month reflects genuine breadth. Culper's healthcare track record continues to stand out.

ADMA · ETHA — Both NASDAQ listed

Bottom Line

March 2026 reinforced a pattern that has been building for several months: activist short research is increasingly precise, cross-border, and sector-concentrated. The 71.4% success rate and -14.6% average return across 14 campaigns represent a strong month by any measure, but the more meaningful data point is the clustering. Four campaigns in asset management. Two in biotech. Two from firms running multi-campaign months at 100% success rates. This is not a random distribution. It reflects research teams that have identified sector-level structural vulnerabilities and are pressing their edge.

The Citron/VCX result deserves its own note. A 70.6% decline in five days on a $5B mid-cap asset manager is not a routine outcome. It reflects a thesis with unusually high market conviction, a target with concentrated vulnerabilities, and execution timing that connected with broader sentiment around asset management durability. Whether VCX's decline proves durable or corrects will be worth tracking.

Looking ahead, the macro context described in Abelian's OWL report (oil-driven inflation, a frozen Fed, accelerating non-traded BDC redemptions) points to a credit environment where further asset management and financial sector campaigns are likely. The AI infrastructure thesis is also ripening. March delivered a productive month for short sellers who did the work. April's setup looks similarly target-rich.

Disclaimer

This report is published by Activ8 Insights for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All performance data reflects price changes from each campaign's entry date to March 31, 2026, and is presented for tracking and analytical purposes. Past performance of activist short campaigns is not indicative of future results. Activ8 Insights does not hold positions in any securities referenced in this report. Research firm rankings and assessments are based solely on the data presented and should not be construed as endorsements or recommendations. Short selling carries substantial risk of loss, including the risk of theoretically unlimited losses. All investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Research summaries in the Notable Campaigns section are drawn from publicly available reports and Activ8 Insights' analysis; they do not represent the views of the research firms cited.

March 2026 Monthly Short Selling Report

March 2026

Executive Summary

The Month in Short

Top Performing Shorts

Stock Prices That Defied the Reports

Market Breakdown

Industry Analysis

Market Cap Analysis

Firm Performance Rankings

Notable Campaigns

Strategic Insights

Short King of the Month

Fugazi Research

Bottom Line

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