AYA GOLD & SILVER $AYA
Blue Orca Capital • Published September 24, 2025 • Phantom Silver, Real Problems
CORE INVESTMENT THESIS
Aya Gold & Silver is a silver mining company with a potentially fraudulent resource estimate that has inflated its silver resource by over 100%.
Blue Orca believes there is overwhelming evidence that Aya inflated its silver resource at Zgounder by potentially reflecting as many as 50+ million phantom ounces.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Head grades fell from Q4 FY2022 high to current 140g/t, approximately 50% below mine plan projections
FY2024 operating cash flow vs. $120M forecasted when silver was $22. Silver now at $44.
Current production tracking 75% short of cash flow projections made when silver was pricing far lower
Blue Orca alleges Zgounder silver resource may be overstated by over 100%, potentially reflecting 50+ million phantom ounces
Head Grade Collapse: Mine Plan vs. Actual
KEY PLAYERS
Benoit La Salle
CEO, Aya Gold & SilverArrived as CEO in 2020 and launched ambitious expansion plan targeting 100Moz resource just 4 months into the job. Connected to multiple companies with Marc-Antoine Audet.
Marc-Antoine Audet
Geologist - Long-time Business Partner of CEOCreated the suspicious December 2021 resource estimate showing 102Moz silver. Long-time business partner with CEO La Salle across multiple public companies. They share the same Quebec office address.
P&E Mining Consultants
Independent Geologists (March 2021)Fred Brown and Eugene Puritch created the March 2021 resource estimate (44Moz). Were relegated to "reviewers only" for the December 2021 estimate that magically found 58Moz more.
Industry Experts
Independent Mining ConsultantsDescribed December 2021 model as "not an update or refinement—it's a full rebuild" and compared the two models as "an apple vs. a tomato—not very comparable."
Smoking Gun Evidence: Resource Model Changes
Tonnage Anomaly
At 50g/t cut-off, tonnage decreased from 12.8Mt to 11.3Mt despite "doubling" the resource
Grade Jump
Grade surged 81% at same cut-off—inconsistent with resource extension discovery
Vanishing Ounces
Low-grade ounces (50-100g/t) simply disappeared between March and December models
Blue Orca Capital's Verdict
According to Blue Orca Capital, Aya Gold & Silver ($AYA) is a company with a potentially fraudulent resource estimate that has inflated its silver resource at Zgounder by over 100%. The evidence suggests that grades are plummeting, production has been dire, and cash flows are anemic despite soaring silver prices because approximately 50+ million ounces of the claimed silver resource are likely phantom. Blue Orca concludes that Aya looks a lot like the penny stock it was before it miraculously "discovered" suspicious new silver that never materializes.
Key Allegations Summary
- Resource Manipulation: December 2021 resource estimate allegedly created through computer model manipulation rather than actual drilling discoveries
- Conflicted Geologist: Critical resource estimate prepared by CEO's long-time business partner rather than independent consultants
- Operational Failures: Grades collapsed 62%, production tracking 75% below projections, negative cash flow despite silver price doubling
- Technical Evidence: Cut-off grade tables show tonnage decreasing while grades artificially surge—inconsistent with legitimate resource extension
- Map Analysis: Block model maps show virtually all December 2021 mineralization within March 2021 envelope, contradicting extension claims
Disclaimer: This dashboard summarizes allegations made by Blue Orca Capital, a short-selling research firm with a financial interest in Aya Gold & Silver's stock price declining. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and due diligence.