Culper alleges Nvidia deliberately misled investors by claiming China compute revenues went to zero after April 2025 while continuing to service Chinese demand through intermediaries. CEO Jensen Huang is alleged to have maintained a personally close relationship with Megaspeed's Alice Huang and to have been present at Megaspeed-linked data centers alongside Alibaba representatives, which Culper characterizes as a governance and concealment concern.

Not Present: Structural / Valuation

The report draws on trade records (Tradesparq), Singapore and Malaysian corporate filings, Megaspeed and Speedmatrix financial statements, and Apex Enterprise Solutions annual reports. It also incorporates on-the-record and anonymous testimony from current and former Nvidia employees, Megaspeed employees, and Chinese tech executives, as well as quantitative analysis comparing IDC market share data against Nvidia's own revenue disclosures.

The March 2026 DoJ indictment of three Supermicro-linked individuals for $2.5 billion in smuggling is an identified specific event already underway. Ongoing investigations by U.S. Commerce and Singapore authorities into Megaspeed, plus Senators Banks and Warren's March 23, 2026 letter requesting immediate pausing of all Nvidia export licenses for Southeast Asia, are near-term pending catalysts with no fixed resolution date.

Not Present: Thesis-Only

China Revenue Did Not Go to Zero

Culper Research alleges that despite CEO Jensen Huang repeatedly claiming Nvidia is '100% out of China' with zero compute share, over 20% of Nvidia's FY 2026 compute revenues remained driven by Chinese demand via Southeast Asian intermediaries and illegal diversion. A former Nvidia director-level employee estimated Chinese demand accounted for '20% to 40%' of data center revenues even after April 2025 restrictions, while IDC data cited by Reuters showed Nvidia shipped approximately 2.2 million cards in China in 2025 with 55% market share, far exceeding what Nvidia's own disclosed H20 revenues of approximately $7.2 billion would imply at $10,000–$12,000 per card.

Alibaba Secretly Financed Megaspeed via Singapore Shell

Culper uncovered Singapore filings showing that Apex Enterprise Solutions, whose sole stated purpose is 'providing procurement activities' and whose corporate parent is Alibaba Group, held $4.2 billion in loans payable to Alibaba as of March 31, 2025. In June 2024, Speedmatrix (Megaspeed's Malaysian subsidiary) filed a charge pledging its entire business as collateral to Apex, two months before commencing operations. Culper alleges this structure allowed Alibaba to effectively finance billions in Nvidia-powered server purchases while Nvidia publicly vouched that Megaspeed was 'wholly owned and operated by a company based and headquartered outside China, with no China shareholders,' a characterization that, per Culper, deliberately omits the question of financing.

Aivres Systems: A De Facto China Supply Channel

Trade records reviewed by Culper show that from December 2024 through January 2026, Speedmatrix imported $4.6 billion in product, of which $4.0 billion originated from Aivres Systems Inc., an Nvidia Elite OEM compute partner formerly known as Inspur Systems Inc. that rebranded after its Chinese parent, Inspur Group, was placed on the U.S. entity list. Aivres remains one-third owned by Inspur Group, just under the 50% restriction threshold. Culper also notes the WSJ reported Aivres would supply $2.5 billion in Blackwell chips to Malaysian cloud operator Aolani to lease to ByteDance, and that Aivres previously supplied servers via Indosat to Shanghai-based INF Tech, founded by a former Alibaba VP. Culper concludes that 'Aivres' business remains, in effect, a China-dedicated supply channel.'

Jensen Huang Personally Present at Every Step

Culper alleges Jensen Huang maintained an 'uncomfortably close relationship' with Megaspeed's Alice Huang, a Chinese national. He was photographed with her in June 2024, the same month the Apex/Alibaba pledge was filed and Megaspeed committed to $2 billion in GPU purchases, and again in Taiwan in May 2025, weeks after U.S. trade restrictions were announced. A current Megaspeed employee told Culper that Jensen visits Megaspeed-linked data centers 'every few months' and 'every single time' is accompanied by Alibaba representatives, characterizing the relationship as 'very close' and adding that Alice Huang 'is actually still our boss' despite media reports otherwise.

China Now Cutting Nvidia Out; Massive Revenue Air Gap Ahead

Culper argues that while analysts treat China as potential upside for Nvidia, Beijing's late 2025 and early 2026 policies, including a November 2025 directive banning foreign AI chips from state-funded data centers, January 2026 border blocks on H200 shipments, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's April 22, 2026 Senate testimony that China has bought 'zero H200 chips,' mean Nvidia is now actually losing the business Jensen Huang claimed went to zero a year ago. Culper's trade record analysis shows Aivres shipped zero chips to Megaspeed in Q1 2026, while mainland Chinese operators told Culper there are 'very few orders in China,' calling it 'a huge blow to Nvidia financially.'